Egyptian-Sudanese relations have yet to address any of the major
points that are being discussed between the two countries today and this
is primarily due to the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam. Sudan is
greatly concerned that Egyptian officials believe that it is within the
best interests of their country's national security to prevent any dams
from being built outside of their national borders. Meanwhile for Sudan,
any agricultural development is directly tied to building more dams,
particularly outside the Sudanese borders.
Water storage facilities in Sudan are not capable of housing the
amounts of water resources that are needed to irrigate the vast amounts
of agricultural planes in the country. Even when it comes to the
question of Halayeb, an area of disputed land between the Egyptian and
Sudanese border which is currently under Egyptian control much to the
fear of the Sudanese, it is likely that Egypt will use this territory as
a playing card with which it will place pressure on Sudan to give up
some of its most basic water rights.
On the other hand, Egypt is worried
about the possibility that
Sudan will later affect its ability to control the Nile's waters through
a series of proposed dams both inside and outside Sudan. Sudanese
officials are accusing Egypt of using this mentality against the
Sudanese people as a means to control them in a way that completely
ignores the possibility of reconciliation and only works in Egypt's
favour. In fact, if Sudan were to demand its share of the Nile's water
(approximately 10 billion cubic metres according to the Nile Waters
Agreement signed in 1929) Egypt would view this as an act of aggression.
The Sudanese claim that the whereabouts of the original copy of this
agreement is unknown. They also point to the fact that they signed this
agreement while they were under a bilateral (British-Egyptian)
occupation. They believe that the original copy of the agreement
includes more Sudanese rights, which the Egyptians would like to keep
hidden.
At the time that Sudan preferred not to participate in the Entebbe
Convention, Egypt also expressed its reluctance to abide by the 1929
Nile Water agreement to the letter, despite the fact that abiding by
this agreement would grant Sudan its full water rights. Moreover, the
biggest danger of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam is that it sets a
precedent for other countries to go against Egypt's will when it comes
to controlling the Nile. Cairo has expressed its anger towards Ethiopia
for not asking for their permission before beginning their vast project.
Facts and figures
85 per cent of the Nile's water supply comes from the Blue Nile over
a four-month period each year. The issue lies with the fact that most
of the water supply does not come from Lake Tana in Ethiopia, which
constitutes only seven per cent of the overall water supply collected
from 40 tributaries.
Lake Tana is located approximately 1,890 metres above sea level in
the Ethiopian plateau, giving it the advantage of generating
electricity. The question of generating electricity affects the Nile
more so in terms of regression as opposed to water supply. In fact,
Sudan currently buys 100 megawatts of electricity from Ethiopia and is
looking to buy more as more than 70 per cent of electricity in Sudan is
generated through water supplies. Overall electricity production in
Ethiopia exceeds 30,000 megawatts.
The overall decline in the Nile's water supply greatly affects the
amount of silt that is found in the water and Ethiopia's overall control
of water from the Blue Nile is limited because of this. One must keep
in mind that the Renaissance Dam's water capacity is a mere 74 billion
cubic metres when compared to the Aswan dam's 162 billion metres cubed.
This means that approximately 14 billion cubic meters of water from the
Renaissance Dam are customised to accommodate quantities of silt.
The depth of the Blue Nile in Ethiopia is approximately 1,400
metres, which means there is large potential to store water in Ethiopian
not for agricultural irrigation purposes but for generating electricity
because the plane is located in an area that experiences a lot of
rainfall. Yet, the decline of the plateau makes it impossible to
accommodate agricultural projects that are vast enough to accommodate
the large amounts of water stored. It is expected that Ethiopia will
consume a mere 1.5 billion metres cubed from the Blue Nile within 25
years and approximately 3.1 billion metres cubed in a hundred years.
Egypt initiated storing water supplies outside of its borders in
Uganda and in Sudan in an area south of Khartoum. The Egyptian minister
of irrigation recently announced Egypt's intention to build a new dam in
South Sudan for storage purposes. He also expressed Egypt's intention
to undergo a series of hydrological and hydraulic studies as well as the
creation of survey maps of the lake and dam site. This was made
possible thanks to geological, environmental and structural research,
all of which Egypt intends to present at a workshop dedicated to their
overall research on this matter.
Egypt has recently announced its initiative to plant more than 2.2
million acres of rice, which shows that the majority of Egypt's projects
focus on transferring the Nile's waters outside the range of the Nile
Basin (to Sinai). All of this affects the ecological balance in that it
does not allocate enough drinking water but mostly focuses the water
supply on agricultural projects that greatly affect the amount of water
that is being exploited (by Egypt).
More than 123 billion metres cubed of water are stored in the High
Dam, in Aswan, which far exceeds Egypt's share. Yet, the truth of the
matter is that about 10.5 billion cubed metres of water are wasted at
the High Dam and the Renaissance Dam is the only facility capable of
storing water right now.
It is important to note that the Renaissance Dam would help prevent
flooding in Sudan, particularly in Khartoum's flat plane. The
Renaissance Dam can help control the amount of water flow that occurs
throughout the autumn. Moreover, when Sudan signed the Nile Water
agreement on November 8, 1959, the goal behind it was to control the
flow of the Nile in a way that would be most beneficial. This gave Egypt
the opportunity to build the High Dam in Aswan, which later resulted in
the creation of an artificial lake that would extend 600 kilometres
passed the Sudanese borders. Its waters flooded Wadi Halfa and other
neighbouring villages. Eventually, water levels dropped leaving about
140,000 acres of land in Sudan suitable for agriculture due to the high
deposits of silt on them.
Egypt and the Nile countries
There have always been increasing calls for countries in the Nile
Basin to reconsider past water agreements. Countries such as Tanzania,
Kenya and Ethiopia have threatened to build dams that would reduce the
amount of water flowing into Egypt unless it agreed to revise and amend
water agreements to suit today's needs.
Fortunately, none of these threats have been carried out for the
most part and this is due to Cairo's attempts to calm the situation
through artistic, technical and economic cooperation that provided
assistance to these countries. However, 11 of the Nile Basin's
countries, with the exception of Sudan and Egypt, have signed the
Entebbe Agreement, which is seen as the "equitable and reasonable"
alternative to the Nile Basin Initiative because it would redistribute
water in fair quotas.
Apparently, Egypt is not only fighting its battle over the
Renaissance Dam through Ethiopia and Sudan exclusively, but it has also
attempted to win over other African countries. These efforts have been
in effect since the beginning of Hosni Mubarak's rule. Further
investigation on the matter revealed that the Egyptian government has
issued more than $4 million in bribes to three African presidents in an
effort to convince them to sway their governments' positions on the
Renaissance Dam. Since the file was listed under matters of national
security, the identities of the three leaders were not revealed.
In the state of South Sudan a group of rebels associated with the
former Vice President Riek Machar accused the Egyptian government of
supporting former President Salva Kiir in the civil war that took place
in Juba. It is said that the military support given to Kiir came in
exchange for his support for Cairo's position regarding the dam in
Ethiopia and plans even point to Kiir's intention to divert water to
Egypt from the Upper Nile.
It is important to note that Juba has already demanded its share of
water from the Nile that was allocated to Sudan. This is estimated at
18.5 million cubic metres as per the Nile Basin Initiative agreements
that were signed in 1929 and 1959. However, after the separation of
South and North Sudan, Juba was not given a specified share of water
from the Nile.
A source of Egypt's concern is that the Entebbe Agreement replaces
the Nile Basin Initiative and it outlines each country's share in loose
terms and supposedly divides water supplies depending on each state's
individual concerns and needs. Yet, the agreement will distribute water
in a way that remains "fair and equitable" and this is the very thing
that Egypt considers to be a threat because it currently enjoys more
than its fair share of the Nile's resources due to the current
agreement. Thus, Egypt has taken a clear and firm decision not to sign
the new agreement unless "it is guaranteed its full share of water from
the Nile", the former Minister of Irrigation said.
Solution and salvation on the horizon
Whether it is in regard to the Millennium Dam or the Entebbe
Convention, it is not in Sudan or Egypt's best interest to remain as
they are, in a position that counters the rest of the African countries
with which they share the Nile's tributaries and basin. Their current
position is somewhat controversial.
As of now, six out of the nine Nile basin countries have signed the
agreement and they are: Ethiopia, Uganda, Rwanda, Tanzania, Kenya and
South Sudan. The critical question here is: can Egypt afford to engage
in an active war that not only confronts all of these countries but also
threatens its water security? At the end of the day, the question of
water supply is a life or death issue that would place Egypt's wellbeing
in jeopardy. This potential war is considered by many to be a strategic
mistake on many fronts.
In my opinion, the Entebbe Convention is the first solution to
calming this situation and on the other front the Ethiopian Renaissance
Dam is needed for the time being.
It is Egypt's responsibility to avoid threatening other countries
with military force for every year since the Khedive's rule, they have
devised a new military strategy to intervene should their interests in
the Nile and its waters be threatened or jeopardised. At the end of the
day, Egypt does not want to enter into any conflicts, whether technical
or economic, with the African countries of the Nile Basin because this
war will undoubtedly go beyond the African dimension.
The Sudanese government has often criticised Egypt for its position
concerning the Ethiopian Renaissance Dam and they have expressed that it
is not an issue for Khartoum. The Sudanese government has also
expressed their desire to remove this issue from its technical and
governmental framework and has warned the Egyptian government that,
should the relationship between Khartoum and Cairo be jeopardised over
this matter, it will only open the door to bigger and more serious
disagreements.
As for Ethiopia, it has stated that the Grand Renaissance Dam is 32
per cent complete and that they are ready for any confrontation from the
Egyptian government. According to Ethiopian Prime Minister Hailemariam
Desalegn his country is ready "to face all options and possibilities".
The only reasonable solution in this scenario would be to come up with
an agreement between Cairo, Khartoum and Addis Ababa that would be
signed by a tripartite committee dedicated to solving this matter.
Translated from Al-Jazeera net June 2, 2014
Source: www.middleeastmonitor.com
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